John J. Murphy-এর “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” বইয়ের একটি গুরুত্বপূর্ণ অধ্যায়, যা ট্রেন্ড ফলোয়িং এবং কাউন্টার-ট্রেন্ড ট্রেডিং কৌশল বিশদভাবে ব্যাখ্যা করে।
🔵 ১) Trend-Following কী?
Trend-Following হলো একটি স্ট্র্যাটেজি যা মূলত বাজারের ট্রেন্ডের দিকে ট্রেড করা হয়। Murphy বলেন:
“The trend is your friend. Following the prevailing trend increases the probability of success.”
মূল ধারণা:
- Market moves in trends → Uptrend, Downtrend, or Sideways
- Trend-following trades profit from sustained directional movement
- Typically uses indicators like Moving Averages, MACD, ADX
🔵 ২) Trend-Following কৌশল
A. Moving Average Crossover
- Short-term MA crosses above long-term MA → Buy
- Short-term MA crosses below long-term MA → Sell
- Trend confirmation: ADX rising above 25
B. Breakout Strategy
- Price breaks major support/resistance → Enter trade
- Volume spike → Strong breakout confirmation
C. Pullback in Trend
- Minor retracement to MA or trendline
- Entry in direction of prevailing trend
- Stop-loss below swing low (uptrend) or above swing high (downtrend)
D. Trend Strength Assessment
- ADX rising → Strong trend
- ATR → Volatility check
- High ADX + price moving with trend → High probability trade
🔵 ৩) Counter-Trend কী?
Counter-Trend হলো একটি স্ট্র্যাটেজি যা ট্রেন্ডের বিপরীত দিকে ট্রেড করা হয়। Murphy বলেন:
“Counter-trend trading is riskier but can yield profits in overextended or exhausted trends.”
মূল ধারণা:
- Trend exhaustion / spike / overbought-oversold conditions
- Typically shorter-term trades
- Requires high discipline and strict stop-loss
🔵 ৪) Counter-Trend কৌশল
A. Overbought/Oversold Oscillators
- RSI > 70 → Trend may reverse → Sell
- RSI < 30 → Trend may reverse → Buy
B. Price Action Reversal Patterns
- Candlestick: Engulfing, Pin Bar, Hammer
- Support/Resistance bounce
C. Divergence Strategy
- Price makes new high, oscillator lower high → Trend weakening → Counter-trend sell
- Price makes new low, oscillator higher low → Trend weakening → Counter-trend buy
🔵 ৫) Risk Management in Trend vs Counter-Trend
- Trend-Following:
- Larger position size possible
- Trailing stop-loss → Capture extended moves
- Counter-Trend:
- Smaller position size recommended
- Tight stop-loss → Protect against trend continuation
- Quick profit targets
🔵 ৬) Practical Example
Scenario 1: Trend-Following Buy
- Uptrend confirmed: Price > 50-day MA
- Pullback to MA + bullish engulfing candle
- Entry: Buy
- Stop-loss: Below MA swing low
- Take profit: Next resistance level
Scenario 2: Counter-Trend Sell
- Uptrend overextended: Price touches upper Bollinger Band
- RSI > 75, MACD shows divergence
- Entry: Sell small position
- Stop-loss: Above recent high
- Take profit: Previous support level
🔵 ৭) Murphy-এর মূল নীতি
1. Trend is your friend → Follow strong trends
2. Counter-trend trades → High risk, small size, strict stop-loss
3. Combine trend analysis + oscillator/divergence → Higher probability signals
4. Always predefine entry, stop-loss, and exit → Discipline
🔵 ৮) Quick Summary Table
Strategy | Key Indicator | Entry Signal | Risk Consideration |
Trend-Following | MA, ADX, MACD | Breakout, Pullback, MA crossover | Larger size, trailing stop |
Counter-Trend | RSI, Stochastic, Divergence | Overbought/Oversold, Reversal pattern | Smaller size, tight stop-loss |
Trend Strength | ADX > 25 | Strong trend continuation | Higher probability trades |
Reversal Signal | Divergence, Spike, Candle pattern | Possible counter-trend | Quick exit, defined risk |
Murphy-এর মূল দর্শন:
“Trade with the trend whenever possible; counter-trend trades are for experienced, disciplined traders who manage risk meticulously.”
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