TECH ANAL 10.2 – FOMO, Greed & Fear – সম্পূর্ণ আর্টিকেল

John J. Murphy-এর “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets” বইয়ের একটি গুরুত্বপূর্ণ অধ্যায়যা ট্রেডিংয়ে সাধারণ মানসিক প্রভাব এবং এগুলোকে কীভাবে নিয়ন্ত্রণ করা যায় তা বিশদভাবে বিশ্লেষণ করে।


🔵 ) FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) কী?

FOMO হলো একটি মানসিক অবস্থা যেখানে ট্রেডার ভয় পান যে তারা লাভের সুযোগ হাতছাড়া করতে পারে।
Murphy 
বলেন:

“FOMO is the silent killer of trading discipline. It forces traders to jump into trades without proper setup.”

প্রভাব:

  • Impulsive entry → High-risk trades
  • Poor risk/reward ratio
  • Emotional stress → Mistakes

উদাহরণ:

  • Market একটি বড় rally করছে, trader মনে করে “এবার না গেলে profit miss হবে
  • Enter করে high-risk position → Pullback বা reversal  ক্ষতি

🔵 ) Greed (লোভ)

Greed হলো অতিরিক্ত লাভের লোভের কারণে নিয়ন্ত্রণ হারানো।

প্রভাব:

  • Overtrading → Multiple positions exceeding risk limits
  • Overleveraging → Account blow-up
  • Holding winning trades too long → Price reverses → Profit loss

Murphy নির্দেশ দেন:

  • Predefine profit targets
  • Stick to risk/reward ratio
  • Discipline over desire

🔵 ) Fear (ভয়)

Fear হলো ক্ষতি বা uncertainty নিয়ে market  hesitant হওয়া।

প্রভাব:

  • Missed opportunities → Avoid entering good setups
  • Premature exit → Profit truncate
  • Emotional stress → Poor decision-making

Murphy বলেন:

  • Fear must be managed through predefined rules
  • Stop-loss protects from large loss → Fear reduces
  • Confidence grows with process consistency

🔵 ) FOMO, Greed & Fear-এর পার্থক্য

Emotion

Definition

Effect on Trading

Management

FOMO

Fear of missing out

Impulsive trades, high-risk entry

Wait for valid setups, follow plan

Greed

Desire for excessive profit

Overtrading, overleveraging, hold trades too long

Predefine targets & risk-reward, stick to discipline

Fear

Fear of loss / uncertainty

Missed trades, premature exit

Risk management, stop-loss, confidence in strategy


🔵 কৌশলসমূহ এই মানসিকতা নিয়ন্ত্রণের জন্য

A. Pre-Trade Plan

  • Entry, exit, stop-loss, take-profit, position size → সব ঠিক করে নিন
  • Plan না থাকলে FOMO বা fear-driven decision

B. Journaling

  • Trade rationale, emotion, outcome → পর্যালোচনা করুন
  • Emotional triggers চিনে corrective action নিন

C. Risk Management

  • Stop-loss + Position sizing → Fear কমায়
  • Risk per trade সীমিত → Confidence বৃদ্ধি

D. Discipline & Patience

  • Only trade setups that meet criteria
  • Ignore noise & market hype
  • Stick to strategy → Greed & FOMO কমানো

E. Psychological Training

  • Mindfulness, meditation, stress management → Emotional control
  • Avoid overtrading & impulsive decisions

🔵 ) Practical Example

Scenario:

  • Market rallies sharply → FOMO temptation
  • Check trade plan → Signal doesn’t meet criteria → Skip trade
  • Outcome: Avoided high-risk entry → Preserved capital

Scenario:

  • Winning trade → Greed → Hold beyond target
  • Price reverses → Profit loss
  • Lesson: Stick to predefined target

Scenario:

  • Downtrend setup → Fear → Hesitate entering
  • Trade still valid → Wait for confirmation & controlled entry → Reduced stress & potential profit

🔵 ) Murphy-এর মূল নীতি

1.     Recognize emotions → FOMO, greed, fear

2.     Emotional awareness → Avoid impulsive trades

3.     Predefined rules + risk management → Emotions controlled

4.     Consistency + discipline → Long-term trading success


Murphy-এর মূল দর্শন:

“Emotions are the trader’s worst enemy. Only by recognizing, understanding, and controlling them can one achieve consistent profitability.”

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